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by OrangeTee & Tie Pte Ltd.

OrangeTee's comments on HDB August 2022 BTO exercise

BTO Launches

Press Release

30 Aug 2022


HDB has just released the BTO exercise for August 2022. You can find our analyses, previous BTO launch information, past application rates, charts and analytics at our OrangeTee BTO Analytics Suite  (https://www.orangetee.com/home/masV2/bto.

https://www.hdb.gov.sg/about-us/news-and-publications/press-releases/30082022-Aug-BTO-launch


HDB has just launched the August 2022 BTO exercise comprising a good mix of varying flat types in six locations – Ang Mo Kio, Bukit Merah, Choa Chu Kang, Jurong East, Tampines and Woodlands.  


1. Overview and comment on new policy change

More than 1,600 (1,651 units) PLH model flats will be offered under the current BTO exercise. Big flats like 773 5-room flats and 39 3Gen flats will also be ramped up. The increase in bigger flats will cater to the growing demand for homes with larger living spaces.  3Gen flats were last offered in February 2020 (non-mature estate Sembawang) and in May 2017 (mature estateToa Payoh at Woodleigh Hillside).

Policy change - As at least 85% of 3-room flats and 95% of 4-room and larger flats in non-mature estates will be set aside for first-time families, some first-timers may switch from applying flats in mature estates to non-mature estates since the chances of securing a flat is higher now. For second-timers, they have a slimmer chance of securing a BTO flat in non-mature estates. Therefore, some may turn to the secondary market, and the increased demand may push prices of resale flats higher in some locations. 


2. Popular projects

Bukit Merah PLH model flats (Havelock Hillside and Alexandra Vale) – The two Bukit Merah BTO sites comprising 1,651 PLH model flats are plum sites. One of the PLH sites is situated next to the Redhill MRT station, while the other is located near Tiong Bahru MRT station and within walking distance of the upcoming Havelock MRT station. Residents enjoy excellent connectivity due to the proximity to the MRT stations. Both projects are at the fringe of the city centre and surrounded by ample amenities.

This is the fourth PLH model flat launch. The good sales take-up of previous projects indicates that many Singaporeans do not mind the stringent selling criteria and longer MOP of PLH model flats. Therefore, we expect these 2 projects to be similarly oversubscribed this time around. However, the subscription rate may not be as high as the first two launches as 5,544 units (including this BTO exercise) units have been released over the past year. The pool of buyers may have shrunk as some eligible or interested buyers have already made a purchase in earlier launches.  

Ang Mo Kio and Tampines – we expect demand for both projects to be strong given their excellent location. Both sites are situated in mature estates and are surrounded by ample amenities. The Ang Mo Kio site is within walking distance of the MRT station, while the Tampines project is flanked between the Tampines MRT station and Tampines East MRT station. The project is one of the earliest to be completed in a mature estate (i.e. 36 months), therefore the project is likely to attract those who are in urgent need of housing and do not wish to stay in a non-mature estate.  There are not many new 5-room flats released in recent launches, especially in mature estates. As both projects offer 5-room flats, they will be popular among families who desire bigger living spaces. 

In addition, there could be more applicants for the Ang Mo Kio project (Central Weave) this time round, as 10 per cent of the units are set aside for residents affected by the Ang Mo Kio SERS. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/doesnt-make-difference-ang-mo-kio-sers-residents-bto-flat-estate-replacement-2866761. We also noticed that 3Gen flats would be offered in the Ang Mo Kio site.


3. Analysis of other BTO projects

The other projects are in the non-mature estates. 

Choa Chu Kang – This site may appeal to families as there are larger 5-room flats available, and the completion time is shorter than other sites. Though it is not that near to the MRT station, it is close to an LRT station, schools and amenities.

Woodlands – The site is very near the Woodlands South MRT station and schools. The project will also appeal to families who wish to enrol their children in the nearby Singapore Sports School.

Jurong East – Although the site is not near an MRT station, residents can enjoy tranquillity as the place is nested within a less crowded part of Jurong. 


4. Comparable with resale flats in the vicinity


5. Price comparison of Bukit Merah PLH model flats with nearby condominiums

The PLH model flats are considered very affordable when compared to private condominiums in the vicinity.  As of Q2 2022, the median price of a condominium in Bukit Merah is S$2,032 psf. Resale condominiums in the vicinity range from around S$1,500 to S$2,100 psf. In the current PLH model flat launch, 4-room flats in  Havelock Hillside and Alexandra Vale are about 86 sqm (around 925 sqft). A similar size private condominium may cost between S$1.39 million (S$1,500 psf) to S$1.94 million (S$2,100 psf).


6. Expected Application Rates



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