Private home prices in Singapore rose at a marginal pace of 0.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022 from the previous quarter, according to flash estimates released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA). This is in stark contrast to the 3.8 per cent increase seen in the July to September period. For the whole of 2022, prices rose 8.4 per cent, lower than the 10.6 per cent in 2021 but higher than 2.2 per cent in 2020.
Prices of non-landed private residential properties in the suburbs or the Outside Central Region (OCR) decreased by 2.6 per cent in Q4 2022, compared to a 7.5 per cent increase last quarter. Conversely, non-landed homes in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) or city fringe increased by 2.6 per cent, compared to a 2.8 per cent increase in Q3. Non-landed homes in the prime districts, or Core Central Region (CCR), rose marginally by 0.5 per cent after a 2.3 per cent increase in the preceding quarter.
Reasons for slower price growth
The price softening is in line with a weaker macroeconomic projection against a backdrop of rising mortgage rates and spiraling inflation. The higher borrowing costs lowered buyers’ housing affordability. Further, new cooling measures introduced in September have lowered the borrowing limits of many buyers.
Sales activities slowed dramatically during the year-end as many Singaporeans rushed to travel overseas this year since border controls were mostly removed worldwide. Developers held back launches during the holiday season, resulting in fewer new homes sold last quarter.
According to URA Realis data, only 666 new homes, excluding executive condominiums, were sold last quarter, down 69.1 per cent from 2,157 units sold in the preceding quarter. Resales, however, dipped only 36.4 per cent from 3,710 units to 2,360 units over the same period.
As a result, the proportion of new sales dipped as low as 21 per cent in Q4 2022 from 35.4 per cent in Q3 2022, whereas resales formed the bulk of 74.4 per cent of total sales last quarter, up from 60.9 per cent in Q3 2022. Therefore the weighted average price for the entire market may have been lowered by the higher proportion of resale transactions as these homes are typically sold at cheaper prices than new homes.
Outlook
The price index may well snap back up for the next quarter as more projects will be launched in the coming months. More private homes will be launched in prime locations and city fringe areas. Sales of such pricier homes may uplift the overall price index.
Nevertheless, housing affordability will be a key concern to most buyers. We expect buyers to stay prudent this year, given the rising interest rates, inflationary pressures and global economic uncertainties. Therefore, the net effect may see prices growing slower, between 5 and 8 per cent this year.