Singapore, 26 Jan 2024 URA has just released the Q4 2023 real estate statistics.
https://www.ura.gov.sg/Corporate/Media-Room/Media-Releases/pr24-03
Prices
The property market experienced a significant slowdown in 2023, according to data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA). The URA property price index (PPI) indicated that prices grew at a more moderate rate of 6.8 per cent for 2023 after rising by 8.6 per cent in 2022 and 10.6 per cent in 2021. The slower pace of price growth in 2023 can be attributed to the higher-for-longer interest rate environment, multiple rounds of property cooling measures over the years, price resistance, and slower overall demand.
For 2023, prices rose the fastest by 13.7 per cent for condominiums in the OCR, the highest annual increase since 2010 at 15 per cent. In comparison, price growth slowed considerably in RCR, from 9.7 per cent in 2022 to 3.1 per cent in 2023. Similarly, smaller gains were observed in CCR, from 4.8 per cent to 1.9 per cent over the same periods.
Volume
Private home sales have declined for the second consecutive quarter, with a 16.7 per cent drop in the fourth quarter of 2023, falling from 5,201 units in Q3 to 4,334 units. The total transactions for the year decreased by 13 per cent from 21,890 units in 2022 to 19,044 in 2023. The sales decline was led by lower resale volume, which dropped by 19.2 per cent from 14,026 units in 2022 to 11,329 units in 2023. New sales fell by 9.6 per cent from 7,099 units in 2022 to 6,421 units in 2023. Subsales rose to 1,294 units in 2023 from 765 units in 2022.
This decline in sales is mainly due to slower overall demand and fewer project launches. Notably, resale volume did not rise although more private homes were completed last year. This could be because investor demand has dipped since the ABSD was increased. Most homes are now bought for either occupation or long-term rental income and not for resale or short-term investment.
Rental
In the last quarter, rental prices dipped across all segments. Non-landed rental prices dipped by 1.8 per cent, following a marginal growth of 0.2 in the preceding quarter, while rents for landed properties slipped 4.1 per cent in Q4. Occupancy rates remained robust, above 90 per cent (91.9 per cent in the last quarter). For 2023, overall rents increased by 8.7 per cent, significantly less than the 29.7 per cent growth in 2022.
The rent drop may be due to increased competition as many private homes were completed last year, and total rental stock grew consequently. Tenants were also willing to move to cheaper alternatives in the public housing segment.
Looking ahead, we predict that the downward pressure on rental prices may continue, and rental prices may grow by a smaller clip of 2 to 5 per cent in 2024. If the rental prices in the luxury and city fringe areas become more affordable and close the gap with those in the suburbs, tenants may start moving back to these areas.
As domestic demand for rental properties continues to shrink, overall rental transactions may fall below its 10-year average of 81,474 units to around 70,000 to 75,000 units in 2024.
Outlook
Although property curbs are in place and buyers are more cautious due to cost concerns, the market is expected to remain stable. The increased supply of completed private homes has helped stabilize prices in 2023, and the market momentum is expected to continue in 2024.
Furthermore, the property market is also expected to benefit from an improving economy and better job prospects, which will help drive demand for properties.
We estimate that price growth may continue to moderate, rising by around 3 to 6 per cent for 2024. Total sales volume (excluding EC) is projected to be between 16,000 and 19,000 units in 2024, lower than the 21,890 units sold in 2022 and 19,044 units in 2023.