Flash Estimates for HDB Resale Q3 2025
Prices
HDB resale price growth posted its smallest gains in nearly five years, as the market slowed down in the third quarter. According to the HDB resale price index, prices rose at a modest pace of 0.4 per cent in Q3 2025, down from the 0.9 per cent growth in Q2 2025 and 1.6 per cent in Q1 2025. This marks the fourth consecutive slowdown in price growth, and the lowest quarterly growth since the 0.3 per cent recorded in Q2 2020 during the pandemic. On a year-on-year basis, prices rose by 5.6 per cent in Q3 2025.
Year-to-date, prices increased by 2.9 per cent, which is less than the 3.8 per cent growth and 6.9 per cent growth in the first three quarters of 2023 and 2024, respectively. Nevertheless, the last quarter marks the most extended period of price growth, with 22 consecutive quarters of increases from Q2 2020 to Q3 2025.
Prices rose at a more gradual pace as demand for resale flats slowed down in recent months. Competition for buyers intensified with over 20,000 new BTO and SBF (sale-of-balance flats) being launched for sale in the February and July BTO sales exercises.
Over 9,000 new flats, with many in choice locations, will be released in the October BTO (build-to-order) sales exercise. It marks the inaugural launch of new flats in Mount Pleasant and Greater Southern Waterfront, where demand is expected to be high.
Furthermore, prices have surged by 54.9 per cent over the span of 22 consecutive quarters from Q1 2020 to Q3 2025. More sellers are demanding record-high prices while buyers are increasingly reluctant to meet sellers’ price expectations. The rising price disparities led to slower deal negotiations and a more challenging resale market.
According to data.gov.sg, average prices either decreased or rose at a slower pace for most flat types. For instance, 5-room flats increased modestly by 0.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q3 2025 compared to the 1.2 per cent growth in Q2 2025. Similarly, prices increased by a marginal 0.3 per cent for 4-room flats in Q3, down from 1.4 per cent growth in Q2. Conversely, flat prices declined by 0.4 per cent for 1-room, 0.9 per cent for 3-room, 1.5 per cent for executive and 6.2 per cent for multi-generation, reversing positive gains in the preceding quarter. 2-room flats were the exception with a 3.1 per cent q-o-q increase, faster than the 1 per cent increase in Q2.
Million-Dollar Flats
The number of million-dollar transactions jumped by 15.7 per cent from 415 units in Q2 2025 to 480 units in Q3 2025, inking another quarterly record. Last quarter, the highest priced flats were transacted at Pinnacle@Duxton in August and September. Both were 5-room flats, with one being a 105 sqm unit sold at S$1.6 million, while the other was a 107 sqm unit sold for S$1.59 million.
Outlook
HDB resale prices are expected to remain stable or experience a slight decline in the fourth quarter. Demand typically falls during the final quarter of the year, as market activity slows down during the year-end holidays. Sales will also be affected by the increase in BTO supply, with over 9,000 new flats released in October.
The income ceiling for couples applying for BTO flats, as well as the minimum age of 35 for singles purchasing flats, will be reviewed. More demand could be drawn from the resale market should more buyers become eligible to buy BTO flats after the income ceiling revision. This may result in slower price growth or even price stagnation.