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OrangeTee | Comments on HDB flash estimates for Q4 2023

HDB Quarterly Data

Press Release

02 Jan 2024

HDB has just released the Q4 2023 real estate statistics. 



HDB resale prices in Singapore grew at a slower pace last quarter as demand was relatively subdued. According to flash estimates released by HDB, resale prices rose for the 15th quarter in a row by 1.0 per cent, compared to 1.3 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. 

For the entire year, prices have grown by 4.8 per cent in 2023, which is significantly less than the 10.4 per cent price gain in 2022 and the 12.7 per cent increase in 2021.

Last quarter, more buyers may have been diverted from the secondary market to the primary market. This is because buyers were offered more housing options with more than 12,000 new flats were launched for sale in Q4. This figure is double the usual number of new flats released per quarter. This was due to a delay in the August Build-To-Order (BTO) sales launch, which resulted in two BTO sales exercises being held in Q4 alone. Furthermore, many of the new flats were in prime or good locations, and most of these projects had relatively shorter construction periods than in the past. 

Prices by towns

Last quarter, price growths were generally more muted or lower in most towns as buyers remained cautious due to inflationary and affordability concerns. Moreover, the primary or BTO market offered them more housing options, which impacted the resale market.

According to HDB resale data from data.gov.sg downloaded on 01 January 2024, median prices in Q4 grew in 13 towns, which is down from 17 towns in Q3. On the other hand, median prices slipped in 10 towns in Q4, compared to just eight towns in the preceding quarter. The highest price gains in the last quarter was in Bukit Panjang at 4.2 per cent. 


Sellers will continue to face intense competition for buyers this year. An additional 37,000 flats may be launched by the government these two years to meet the target supply of up to 100,000 flats from 2021 to 2025, and this may cause some demand to shift away from the resale market. Over 63,000 Build-To-Order (BTO) flats have already been sold from 2021 to 2023.

Despite the increased competition from the BTO market, a significant drop in resale prices is unlikely in the near term. The scarcity of MOP (minimum occupation period) flats will help to support prices in certain locations. The number of flats reaching their five-year (MOP) has decreased from 30,920 units in 2022 to 15,549 units in 2023. The supply of MOP flats is projected to decrease further in 2024 to 11,952 units, resulting in fewer flats available for resale. Nevertheless, the increase in BTO supply can help address the supply-demand imbalance and prevent further escalation of resale prices, leading to better price stability in the long term. 

According to our estimations, prices are expected to rise modestly by 3 to 5 per cent for the entire 2024, which is comparable to or slightly lower than the 4.8 per cent increase that was observed in 2023.

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