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OrangeTee | Comments on new housing policies announced during the National Day Rally 2023

Government Policies

Press release

Comments on new housing policies announced during the National Day Rally 2023

20 August 2023 - The government announced several new housing policies during the National Day Rally 2023. The key changes are: 

1. Reviewing the estate classification of new BTO flats. Future BTO flats will be recategorised as Prime, Plus and Standard flats instead of flats in mature and non-mature estates.

2. Enhancing access for singles to buy all 2-room flexi flats across Singapore. 

3. Building more community care apartments for the elderly. 


Why a review of the estate classification is timely? 

A review could be timely as the line between mature and non-mature estates has gradually blurred over the years. Moreover, the price mechanism for future BTO projects should be more associated with locational attributes. 

In the past, buyers were willing to pay more for flats in mature estates as they were closer to the city center. However, more flats in non-mature estates were sold at higher prices when compared to older estates in recent years. For instance, the median resale price in Punggol (S$550,000) and Sengkang (S$541,888) surpassed certain mature estates like Bedok (S$440,000) and Ang Mo Kio (S$425,000) in 2022. Even in the private residential market, the cost of some properties in the city fringe is higher than others in the prime locations.

These trends indicate that buyers are now placing a higher value on a product’s attribute (i.e. proximity to town centers, popular schools, MRT stations, design features, etc) rather than its proximity to the city center. Therefore, reclassifying flats to be more associated with locational attributes can provide a more accurate depiction of the intrinsic value of flats outside of the city center (these flats will be termed as Plus Flats).


Benefits of extending MOP for some flats (Plus Flats) 

1. To reinforce the narrative that public housing is meant primarily to serve as a home for the long term and not to be used for speculative investment or treated as short-term assets.  


It is a good move to extend the MOP of certain flats. The change will reinforce the message that public housing is primarily meant to serve as a home for the long term and not to be used for speculative investments or treated as short-term assets. 


Moreover, many flats in mature estates are ageing and will be redeveloped into new housing units. With more prime land being free up for redevelopment, it is a good reminder to young Singaporeans to stay longer in these well-located, subsidised flats.  



2. To reduce speculative activities by slowing sales of newly MOP flats  


Data has shown a growing number of young Singaporeans selling their flats shortly after MOP. Based on HDB transaction data from data.gov.sg, the number of flats sold within two years of MOP or flats aged 7 years and below have ballooned 733 per cent from 743 units in 2014 to 6,189 units in 2022. (We chose a period of two years after MOP or 7-year-old flats as this is a reasonable time frame for buyers to sell their flats and find a replacement home). 


These flats now constitute a bigger proportion of the total resale transactions, which rose from 4.6 per cent in 2014 to 23.2 per cent in 2022. This trend is more prevalent in non-mature estates, where transactions of flats aged 7 years and below jumped from 5.2 per cent in 2014 to 31.3 per cent in 2022. Therefore, implementing Plus Flats with longer MOP periods outside of the Central Area may slow down such transactions. 




Moreover, more newly MOP flats were sold for at least a million dollars. 63 million-dollar flats transacted in 2022 were 7 years old and below, constituting 17.1 per cent of the total million-dollar flats transacted that year.

Comparatively, no flats of that age range were sold for at least a million dollars in 2014. A rising number of such transactions may distort the price expectation of other sellers and fuel the heated million-dollar flat market.  


3. Stabilise property prices in the long run by curbing speculative activities and regulating the pace of upgrading



Data has shown that the demand drivers of private homes especially those in suburbs are primarily locals, especially HDB upgraders who have gained a windfall from selling their HDB flats. With demand far outstripping supply, new home prices in some suburban areas have risen beyond S$2,000 psf, while some in the city fringes have hit S$3,000 psf. The pace of price growth is unlikely to be sustainable.

                

Therefore, it is necessary to regulate the pace of price growth for private properties by managing demand from upgraders. Lengthening the holding period of a property can delay the ‘lottery effect’ and reduce the number of people purchasing flats in prime locations for short-term gains.

 

 

Will Singaporeans accept homes with a longer MOP?

The longer MOP did not come as a surprise as it is aligned with the broader vision to reinforce the notion of long-term homeownership. A 10-year MOP may be acceptable to many buyers since the majority of flats were sold after 10 years, based on past sales data.

In 2022, the bulk of 73.1 per cent of resale transactions were for flats that were at least 10 years old. Of this proportion, 24.8 per cent were at least 30 years but less than 40 years old, and 21.8 per cent were for flats that were at least 20 years but less than 30 years old.

The new PLH model flats, which require a 10-year MOP, were probably used as a test bed to assess market acceptance of premium flats that entail a longer MOP. Based on the robust number of applicants for PLH model flats, the results have been positive, indicating that many buyers are receptive to buying flats with longer MOP.



Potential Impact on other markets

There could be a short-term surge in demand for properties in other market segments. Singaporeans who wish to stay in certain areas but do not want to commit to a longer MOP requirement will shift to the HDB resale market or buy older resale condominiums. 

The HDB resale market may see more impact as additional grants are given to first-timers buying resale flats now. Resale flat supply may also lag behind demand in certain areas as the MOP is now longer.


Changing the Singles BTO scheme

Singles can purchase 2-room flexi flats from any of the three flat categories. In the past, singles were prohibited from buying flats in mature estates due to a supply shortage. It is good to allow singles to purchase small flats nearer to the downtown area since there is a supply ramp-up of new flats. Moreover, such a move may help some singles reduce commuting time to their workplaces in the downtown area. These singles also do not need to incur high rental or purchase costs since they can now opt to buy subsidised BTO flats.

Moreover, with an ageing population, many singles in the outskirts may need family assistance as they grow older. Therefore, the redistribution of singles to other parts of Singapore can help promote a greater mix of population and enhance housing diversity within communities.


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