URA real estate statistics Q1 2026 Commentary
Prices
Private home prices rose at a faster pace in the first quarter of 2026. However, sales activity softened, with transactions dipping year-on-year.
According to Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) data, the overall price index for private residential properties rose marginally by 0.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2026.
The marginal price increase, and decrease in sales transactions reflect a broader slowdown in the housing market, driven by the macroeconomic uncertainties and cautious sentiment among buyers and investors. Moreover, interest rates have begun to inch up, with slight increases in some bank mortgage rates, such as fixed rates.
However, certain market segments are still performing well. These include new homes in attractive locations, ECs and suburban homes with more accessible price points, as well as luxury homes. For instance, both Rivelle@Tampines and Pinery Residences sold more than 90 per cent of their units within the first weekend.
Sales Volume
Private home sales (excluding ECs) dipped for a second consecutive quarter to 5,413 units in Q1 2026. The drop in sales was observed across all three sales types, with new sales experiencing the biggest q-o-q drop of 31.5 per cent. The sharp decline was due to fewer projects being launched during the Chinese New Year Period. As a result, there was a 29.9 per cent decline in launched uncompleted private residential units (excluding EC) from 2,632 units in Q4 2025 to 1,844 units in Q1 2026.
In comparison, resale volumes dipped by a lower percentage of 8.6 per cent. Nonetheless, this is the lowest quarterly resale volume in two years, since 2,689 units were transacted in Q1 2024.
Rental
Rental prices rebounded marginally from a 0.5 per cent q-o-q drop in Q4 2025 to a 0.3 per cent increase in Q1 2026. The rental pick-up could be due to more tenants returning to the market after the year-end holidays.
Macroeconomic uncertainties and potential rate hikes may exert pressure on the private rental market. The private rental market may face more impact as its tenants tend to be higher-paid expats who may have greater exposure to macroeconomic challenges. Existing trade barriers, ongoing trade tensions, and high business expenses have further restricted companies’ expansion plans, resulting in fewer job openings and reduced expat hirings in certain sectors over the past year. Some MNCs have begun reducing their cross-border employment and international job placements, leading to the termination of some expatriate employment contracts.
Despite these challenges, the market will see an inflow of expatriates from emerging sectors such as AI. Moreover, private home supply remains tepid. In light of the countervailing factors, overall private rents are projected to grow modestly by 2 to 3 per cent in 2026. Demand may slow compared to last year, with approximately 82,000 to 87,000 leases.
Outlook
The property market has yet to reflect the full impact of the ongoing Middle East conflicts. Although tensions have heightened geopolitical risks, the scale of impact will be contingent on how the situation unfolds. If the conflict escalates or prolongs, the increased volatility, coupled with higher oil prices and construction costs, could drive up business costs. Inflationary pressures may persist and elevate interest rates, which would have an adverse impact on borrowing costs and home-buying sentiment.
New home sales is expected to be stronger in Q2, given a few blockbusters launches like Vela Bay, which is the first private home launch in the new Bayshore precinct, as well as Tengah Garden Residences, also the first private residential development in the Tengah estate. We expect demand to be firm for both projects, as many Singaporeans would want to enjoy the first-mover advantage of owning the first homes in these new precincts.
Overall, we maintain our price projection for 2026 that private residential prices are to grow by 2.5 to 4.5 per cent, with 23,500 to 25,500 transactions expected for the whole year.