Please find below Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group’s commentary on the URA real estate statistics Q4 2025.
URA real estate statistics Q4 2025 Commentary
Prices
Private home prices rose further in Q4 2025, albeit at a slower pace, amid lower transaction volume. According to data released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), the overall price index for private residential properties rose by 0.6 per cent, less than the 0.9 per cent increase seen in Q3 2025. For the whole of 2025, private home prices climbed by 3.3 per cent. This was a slower pace than the 3.9 per cent growth in 2024.
Volume
Private home sales (excluding ECs) dipped by 9.5 per cent from 7,404 units in Q3 2025 to 6,699 units in Q4 2025. This may be due to fewer launches, which led to a drop in units launched for sale; the number of launched units (excluding ECs) fell from 4,191 to 2,632 over the same period.
Sales volume dipped across all sales types. New sales slid by a larger margin of 10.6 per cent from 3,288 units in Q3 2025 to 2,940 units in Q4 2025, while resale volume declined by 9.1 per cent from 3,881 units in Q3 2025 to 3,529 units in Q4 2025. Subsale slipped 2.1 per cent over the same period.
The sales decline across the board could be attributed to the seasonal slowdown during the year-end holidays, when marketing activity is usually more subdued. There were also fewer projects launched last quarter – 9 in Q3 2025 versus 6 in Q4 2025.
For the whole of 2025, 26,492 units (excluding ECs) were transacted, reaching a four-year high. The strong sales were driven by a surge in new sales transactions, which climbed from 6,469 units in 2024 to 10,815 units in 2025. The number of resale transactions similarly rose last year to 14,622 units, up from 14,053 units in 2024. Both the total new sales and resale volumes have similarly reached four-year highs.
Rental
Rental prices dipped modestly in Q4 2025 on weaker rental volumes. According to the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) rental index, private rents dipped marginally by 0.5 per cent last quarter, after rising 1.2 per cent in the preceding quarter.
In terms of rental volume, the number of rental contracts fell from 27,223 units in Q3 2025 to 19,771 in Q4 2025, according to URA Realis data. The weaker rental demand is within expectation since many tenants are typically on holiday during the November and December period, while most would have already secured a unit or renewed their leases before the year-end. Nonetheless, the overall occupancy rate remained healthy, increasing marginally from 93.1 per cent in Q3 2025 to 94 per cent in Q4 2025.
For the full year, rents increased by 1.9 per cent in 2025, which is a strong reversal from the 1.9 per cent decline in 2024. Rental volume was also higher on an annual basis with 89,376 rental contracts, up 3.4 per cent from 86,476 in 2024. This indicates that the rental market rebounded slightly last year.
Moving forward, landlords will likely face stiffer competition for tenants as more private homes will be completed this year. They may also face more competition from newer HDB flats as the public housing stock is poised to increase substantially. The overall private rental price index is expected to hold steady at 2 to 3 per cent for the whole of 2026, while 82,000 to 87,000 homes could be leased.
Outlook
The extremes of higher tariffs were largely tempered due to ongoing diplomatic efforts that eased trade setbacks. However, the underlying trade environment remains uncertain, with more protectionism and labour supply shocks. Nonetheless, property-buying sentiment is expected to remain positive this year. Interest rates are expected to fall further, albeit at a gradual pace, and possibly flat-line in the second half of the year. Lower borrowing costs will improve affordability for buyers. Singapore’s economic growth is also expected to be positive this year.
Private home prices are projected to rise moderately. Prices are not expected to climb significantly this year as the number of new sale transactions is expected to fall in tandem with fewer project launches. Further, more than half of the new launches will be in the suburban area, where prices tend to be lower than in other market segments. The increase in completed properties may place some downward pressure on prices as well. The net effect may see prices rise moderately by 2.5 to 4.5 per cent, which is on par with the 3.3 per cent growth in 2025 and the 3.9 per cent in 2024.
We estimate that approximately 23,500 to 25,500 private homes (excluding ECs) may be sold in 2026, slightly lower than the 26,492 units sold in 2025. This may be due to fewer new home launches. Nonetheless, the level of expected sales would still be considered healthy, as it is higher than the total sales inked in 2022 (21,890 units), 2023 (19,044 units), and 2024 (21,950 units).