HDB resale prices held steady for the first time since Q1 2020 and after 22 consecutive quarters of growth.
According to flash estimates released by HDB, the resale flat prices registered zero growth in the fourth quarter of 2024. It is unsurprising that prices held steady last quarter, as price growth has been slowing over the past year, from 2.7 per cent in Q3 2024 to 2.6 per cent in Q4 2024, and further to 1.6 per cent, 0.9 per cent, and 0.4 per cent in the subsequent quarters.
For the whole of 2025, prices grew by 2.9 per cent, which is substantially lower than the 9.7 per cent growth in 2024 and the 10.4 per cent gains in 2022.
According to the caveat data from data.gov.sg, the price decline was observed across most flat types. Average prices of smaller flats registered steeper price declines, such as a 0.4 per cent decline for 1-room flats, a 1.6 per cent drop for 2-room flats, a 0.8 per cent fall for 3-room flats, and a 0.9 per cent dip for 4-room flats. Average prices of bigger flats rose last quarter, registering a 1.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) increase for 5-room flats and 2.7 per cent gains for executive flats.
Across the towns, there were more towns registering price drops than price gains. In 4Q 2025, 16 towns registered declines in price, 8 towns price gains and 2 towns zero growth. The most significant price drops were in Central Area (-11.1 per cent q-o-q), Ang Mo Kio (-7.6 per cent), Toa Payoh (-5.7 per cent), Woodlands (-4.8 per cent), Geylang (-4.4 per cent), and Bukit Batok (-3.8 per cent).
Reasons behind the zero growth
The slower pace of price growth over the past year and the subsequent zero price growth in the last quarter indicate a cooling in demand for resale flats. Many buyers opted for SBF and BTO flats last year, drawing over 110,000 applicants for the three sales exercises, marking a three-year high. In comparison, there were around 80,000 applicants in 2023 and 82,000 applicants in 2024.
The high number of applicants was mainly driven by policy changes that made it more favourable for Singaporeans to buy new flats. Many flats at highly desirable locations and with short waiting times were also released for sale.
Further, the gap in price expectations was also widening as many sellers asked for high prices while buyers showed increasing price resistance. As a result, deals were taking longer to close, leading to fewer transactions.
Sales tend to be slower at year-end because of the school holidays, when many Singaporeans travel abroad. As a result, housing viewings and sales activities typically decrease during this time.
Million-dollar flats
The number of million-dollar flat transactions saw a significant decline of 26.9 per cent from a quarterly peak of 480 units in Q3 2025 to 351 units in Q4 2025.
Market outlook
The HDB resale market will likely continue to stabilise in 2026, with a modest price growth and slightly fewer transactions. The increase in MOP flat supply will further intensify competition among sellers as buyers will have a broader range of flat options.
Nonetheless, the anticipated lower mortgage rates, healthy income growth and population expansion may boost demand. An increase in premium flat transactions is expected, as more resale flats in mature estates will be reaching MOP in 2026. All these factors are likely to soften the market impact from the supply surge and help prevent significant price corrections.
In light of the countervailing factors, overall resale prices may grow at a modest pace or stabilise in certain regions. We expect HDB resale prices to rise by 2 to 4 per cent for the whole of 2026, which will be on par with the 2.9 per cent for 2025 but lower than the 10-year average of 5.1 per cent from 2016 to 2025.