Please find below Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) commentary on the URA flash estimates Q4 2025.
Q4 2025 Private Residential Flash Estimates
Private home prices rose further in Q4 2025, albeit at a slower pace, amid lower transaction volume. According to flash estimates released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), the overall price index for private residential properties rose by 0.7 per cent, a slightly slower pace than the 0.9 per cent increase seen in Q3 2025.
For the whole of 2025, private home prices climbed by 3.4 per cent. This was a slower pace than the 3.9 per cent growth in 2024 and substantially lower than the growth of 6.8 per cent in 2023 and 8.6 per cent in 2022. This is also the slowest annual price growth recorded since 2020, when prices increased by 2.2 per cent during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Prices of non-landed properties – or condos and apartments – dipped marginally by 0.1 per cent in the fourth quarter, reversing the 0.8 per cent gain in the third quarter of 2025. Landed prices rose by 3.5 per cent in Q4, more than the 1.4 per cent increase in the preceding quarter.
Among the sub-markets, prices of non-landed properties increased the most by 1.0 per cent in the suburbs or Outside Central Region (OCR), higher than the 0.8 per cent growth in Q3 2025. This is followed by 0.7 per cent in the city fringe or the Rest of Central Region (RCR), after a 0.3 per cent increase in the previous quarter. In the prime areas or Core Central Region (CCR), prices fell by 3.2 per cent in Q4 2025, reversing the 1.7 per cent growth in the third quarter.
Price drivers
The price increase was mainly driven by a higher proportion of new sales transactions in the fourth quarter of 2025. According to URA realis data, the proportion of new home sales (excluding ECs) rose from 44.3 per cent in Q3 2025 to 48 per cent in Q4 2025.
A few high-profile projects contributed to the sales and were sold at median prices that exceeded S$2,500 psf. For instance, in Q4 2025, Skye at Holland moved 662 units at a median price of S$2,949 psf, Zyon Grand sold 608 units at a median price of S$3,039 psf, Penrith transacted 448 units at a median price of S$2,793 psf and The Continuum sold 60 units at a median price of S$2,551 psf.
More than 50 per cent of the transactions in Q4 2025 were at least S$2 million. According to URA Realis data, 3,389 units (landed and non-landed, excluding ECs) were transacted at this price range, constituting 56.6 per cent of the total 5,989 transactions (all sale types). By comparison, 47.1 per cent of total transactions were at this price range in Q3 2025.
Market outlook
Looking ahead, we expect private home prices to increase moderately in 2026. The number of new project launches is expected to be lower than in 2025, which may lead to fewer new sale transactions. Further, more than half of the new launches will be in the suburban area, where prices tend to be lower than in other market segments.
There will also be more resale homes being completed next year, which will invigorate and sustain buyer interest in the secondary market. The influx of completed properties may place some downward pressure on prices. Therefore, overall prices are projected to increase by 2.5 to 4.5 per cent for the whole of 2026, which is on par with the 3.4 per cent growth for 2025 and 3.9 per cent in 2024.
We estimate that approximately 23,500 to 25,500 private homes (excluding ECs) may be sold in 2026, a slight decline from the anticipated sales for 2025, estimated at around 26,300 to 27,200 units. While sales might be lower in 2026, the market performance is still expected to be robust, following a four-year peak in 2025 and remaining above the 10-year average of 22,678 units. In comparison, total sales volume in previous years was relatively more subdued at 21,950 units in 2024, 19,044 units in 2023 and 21,890 units in 2022.
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