HDB Public Data Q1 2026 Commentary
In the first quarter of 2026, HDB resale prices posted the first decline in nearly seven years, decreasing marginally by 0.1 per cent in Q1 2026. The last price fall occurred in Q2 2019 when prices fell 0.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q).
The price decline can be attributed to the slower buying sentiment, as there was a substantial increase in public housing flats as well as more resale flats reaching MOP and being listed for resale.
Prices by Flat Types
Price growth varied across different flat types. According to the caveat data from data.gov.sg, average prices of 1-room (-4.4 per cent), 5-room (-0.7 per cent) and executive flats (-2.9 per cent) registered quarterly price declines in Q1 2026. The other flat types had marginal gains of 0.8 per cent for 4-room flats, 3-room flats had 1 per cent gains and 1.5 per cent for 2-room flats.
Resale Volume
Resale volume rose by 19.6 per cent q-o-q. Sales typically increase at the beginning of the year as buyers return after the school holidays. It is also supported by seasonal buying behaviour, as there are also some buyers who prefer to purchase a new home before the Chinese New Year period. Moreover, the increase in resale volume is on the back of a comparatively subdued activity level in Q4 2025, contributing to a low base effect.
However, on a year-on-year basis, sales were lower, indicating that the resale market has generally slowed down this year. We observed that deals are taking longer to close in recent months, as buyers had more housing options and sentiment has slowed in view of the uncertain macroeconomic conditions.
HDB rental applications dipped on a quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year basis. This year, the tide may turn in favour of tenants as the public housing supply is expected to climb. As more than 50,000 flats reach their MOP over the next three years, we expect more flats to be listed for rent, intensifying competition among landlords. Since tenants will have a wider range of housing options, they will have greater negotiating leverage and stronger bargaining power to secure better rental rates and leasing terms.
Nonetheless, the impact of the HDB supply surge may spill over to the private rental market as young expatriates seeking convenience and accessibility may switch to flat rentals. Some may find the benefits of residing in a new flat, with proximity to MRT stations, shopping malls, or other amenities, outweighing the advantages of living in a private condo.
Outlook
The HDB resale market will continue to be influenced by domestic factors like housing supply, income growth and hiring outlook. Moreover, supply is expected to rise substantially over the next few years, exerting downward pressure on prices. We anticipate more buyers to shift to the BTO market as a few attractive projects will be launched in June, including the second BTO project at the Greater Southern Waterfront precinct.
Should the conflict in the Middle East escalate, leading to higher interest rates, increased business costs, and impacting employment, all of which will dampen consumer confidence and housing affordability in the HDB resale market.
Given the macroeconomic uncertainties, we expect price growth to remain subdued. Overall, we maintain our projections that HDB resale prices are to rise modestly by 2 to 4 per cent for the whole of 2026.