In the first quarter of 2026, HDB resale prices posted the first decline in nearly seven years, decreasing marginally by 0.1 per cent in Q1 2026.  The last price fall occurred in Q2 2019 when prices fell 0.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q).

The price decline can be attributed to an increased supply of resale flats, coupled with heightened caution among buyers stemming from growing uncertainties in the broader economy.

Price trends varied across towns. In Q1 2026, 20 towns recorded either less than 2 per cent price gains or price declines. Only six towns had more than 2 per cent price gains.

The biggest falls were in Clementi (-6.9 per cent),  Marina Parade (-5.5 per cent), Bukit Timah (-5.2 per cent) and Bishan at (-4.4 per cent).

The most significant quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) price gains were in Ang Mo Kio (18.8 per cent), Geylang (6.8 per cent), Serangoon (5.6 %), Bukit Batok (4.3 per cent) and Kallang/Whampoa (3.6 per cent).

More supply in the market – The number of resale flats reaching their five-year Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) is projected to rise from 6,973 units in 2025 to 13,484 in 2026, then to 18,939 in 2027, and to 21,393 in 2028, based on HDB property information from data.gov.sg. This amounts to 53,816 MOP flats from 2026 to 2028, a 56.1 per cent increase from 34,474 units during the three-year period of 2023 to 2025. With many resale flat supply coming on stream,, buyers have many housing options to choose from.

More competition from BTO flats – The government has been launching many new flats in choice locations and with short waiting periods. Such flats are in direct competition with resale flats as buyers now do not need to wait too long for new housing.

Despite the overall price decrease, premium flats continue to perform well. The number of resale flats sold for at least S$800,000 rose 30.3 per cent from 1,047 units in Q4 2025 to 1,364 units in Q1 2026, based on HDB caveat data from data.gov.sg.

Year-on-year, transactions also exceeded the 1,182 units sold in Q1 2025. The transaction of 1,364 units last quarter also represents a record high for the first quarter, indicating strong demand for premium flats despite their higher price tags.

The HDB resale market has not experienced the full impact of the Middle East war. Buying sentiment has been more dependent on domestic factors such as hiring outlook and income growth. Furthermore, housing supply dynamics had a more pronounced impact on the HDB resale market.

However, the market could be adversely affected if the conflict in the Middle East escalates, leading to higher interest rates, increased business costs, and impacting employment; all of which will dampen consumer confidence and housing affordability in the HDB resale market.

Moreover, supply is expected to rise substantially over the next few years, exerting downward pressure on prices.

Given the macroeconomic uncertainties, we do not expect prices to escalate in the near term.  Overall, we maintain our projections that HDB resale prices are to rise modestly by 2 to 4 per cent for the whole of 2026.