HDB Public Data Q4 2025 Commentary
HDB resale prices held steady for the first time since Q1 2020, after 22 consecutive quarters of growth. According to public housing data released by HDB, the resale flat prices registered a 0.0 per cent change in the fourth quarter of 2025. It is unsurprising that prices remained flat last quarter, as price growth has been slowing for four straight quarters since Q4 2024. For the whole of 2025, prices grew by 2.9 per cent, which is slower than the 9.7 per cent in 2024, 4.9 per cent in 2023 and the 10.4 per cent gains in 2022.
Across towns, more were registering price drops than gains. In Q4 2025, average prices fell in 16 towns, rose in 8 towns, and remained unchanged in 2 towns. The most significant quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) price drops were in Central Area (-11.1 per cent), Ang Mo Kio (-7.6 per cent), Toa Payoh (-5.7 per cent), Woodlands (-4.8 per cent), Geylang (-4.4 per cent), and Bukit Batok (-3.8 per cent).
The slower pace of price growth across many towns, as well as the zero price growth registered islandwide in the last quarter, indicates a cooling in demand for resale flats in many parts of the island. This can be attributed to the surge in flat supply from the BTO and SBF markets.
Volume
Resale volume dipped by 27.2 per cent from 7,221 units in Q3 2025 to 5,256 units in Q4 2025. This is the lowest quarterly sales since Q2 2020, when 3,426 units were sold during the pandemic.
For the whole of 2025, 26,169 units were transacted, which is 9.7 per cent below the 28,986 units sold in 2024 and 2.1 per cent lower than the 26,735 units sold in 2023. The total sales in 2025 were also the lowest annual sales since 2020, when 24,748 units were transacted.
The sales decline and zero price growth both indicate that the HDB market has slowed down over the past year. Again, this could be attributed to more buyers being diverted to the BTO and SBF markets. Further, the widening gap in price expectations, with many sellers asking for high prices while buyers showing increasing price resistance, resulted in a longer transaction timeline and fewer completed deals. Sales also tend to be slower during the year-end holidays, when many Singaporeans travel abroad.
Rental
HDB rental demand dipped in Q4 due to the seasonal slowdown during the year-end holidays. According to HDB Public Housing Data, the number of approved applications to rent out HDB flats declined by 5.6 per cent, from 10,123 units in Q3 2025 to 9,557 units in Q4 2025. For the whole of 2025, there were 39,408 applications, a 7.5 per cent increase from the 36,673 units in 2024.
In the mid- to long term, HDB landlords may face more competition as the public housing stock is poised to increase substantially. The number of resale flats reaching MOP is projected to rise from 6,973 units in 2025 to 13,484 units in 2026, and further increase to 18,939 units in 2027 and 21,393 units in 2028. In 2026, HDB leasing volume may reach 36,000 to 39,000 units, similar to or slightly lower than 2025.
Outlook
The HDB resale market will likely continue to stabilise in 2026, with a modest price growth and slightly fewer transactions. The increase in MOP flat supply will further intensify competition among sellers as buyers will have a broader range of flat options. Buyers can also secure new flats without lengthy waits. Thus, older flats in non-mature estates will face direct competition from SBF and Standard flats, which offer shorter waiting periods. This shift is a game-changer since immediate occupancy was a key advantage that resale flats had over new flats.
On the other hand, positive macroeconomic factors such as lower mortgage rates, steady income growth and stable economic growth will boost demand for resale flats. The anticipated lower mortgage rates, healthy income growth and population expansion may boost demand.
In light of the countervailing factors, overall resale prices may grow at a modest pace or stabilise in certain regions. We expect HDB resale prices to rise by 2 to 4 per cent for the whole of 2026, which will be on par with the 2.9 per cent for 2025, but lower than the 10-year average of 5.1 per cent from 2016 to 2025.