by OrangeTee & Tie Pte Ltd.

OrangeTee's comments on HDB Q4 2022 Public Housing Data

HDB Quarterly Data

Press Release

27 Jan 2023

HDB has just released the Q4 2022 public housing data.


Housing market shows signs of cooling after September's property curbs

The housing market is finally cooling after catapulting to new heights this year. Home prices dipped across most flat types and in many housing estates after cooling measures were implemented in September 2022.

HDB Resale Price Index

HDB resale price growth slowed further to 2.3 per cent last quarter after prices grew by a slower pace of 2.6 per cent in Q3. The second consecutive price slowdown came after new cooling measures were implemented in September. 

Last quarter's price growth was the smallest quarterly increment since Q3 2020, when prices grew by 1.5 per cent. Nevertheless, prices have risen for 11 consecutive quarters and remained at a record high last quarter. For the whole of 2022, prices rose 10.4 per cent, less than the 12.7 per cent increase in 2021 but above the 5 per cent in 2020. 

HDB Resale Prices softening across most flat types

Price growth was modest last quarter because of September’s cooling measures and rising interest rates. Resale prices moderated across most flat types and in many housing estates last quarter. Based on HDB data from data.gov.sg, average resale prices of 3-room flats grew at a slower pace of 1.6 per cent in Q4 2022 when compared to 2.0 per cent in Q3 2022, while 5-room units grew slower by 0.8 per cent in Q4 2022 versus a 2.4 per cent increase in Q3 2022. Conversely, prices of 1-room (-0.2 per cent), 2-room (-0.4 per cent), and executive flats (-0.9 per cent) shrunk last quarter.

The median prices at 10 out of 26 towns slipped last quarter. Serangoon saw the highest quarter-on-quarter price decline of 6.5 per cent in Q4 2022, followed by Jurong East at 6.5 per cent, Toa Payoh at 6.0 per cent, Queenstown at 5.0 per cent, Kallang/ Whampoa at 3.5 per cent and Bedok at 3 per cent.

Prices of resale flats in the other 16 towns rose by 0.4 to 24 per cent last quarter. Six towns registered less than 1 per cent increase, such as Marine Parade, Jurong West, Choa Chu Kang, Clementi, Yishun and Bukit Batok. The highest quarterly increases were in Bukit Timah (24 per cent), Central Area (11.6 per cent), Geylang (6.4 per cent), and Bukit Merah (3.8 per cent). 17 towns registered a negative percentage point change when we compared the Q3 to Q4 price change to Q2 to Q3 price change, showing that many towns either showed a slower price increment or price fall after the cooling measures. 

HDB Resale Volume

Sales dipped by 12.6 per cent from 7,546 units in Q3 to 6,597 units in Q4, based on figures released by HDB. Year-on-year, sales dipped by 16.9 per cent from 7,940 units in Q4 2021.

For the whole of 2022,  27,896 flats were transacted, 10.1 per cent lower than the  31,017 units sold in 2021, but higher than the 23,714 units sold in 2019 and 24,748 units in 2020.

Last year’s sales performance is considered healthy, considering prices are at record highs, and competition has been stiff with many BTO flats launched.

Fewer units were sold last quarter due to the cooling measures and many people travelling overseas. With fewer house viewings during the year-end, lesser deals were consequently sealed.

The lull season may ride into January as sales activities tend to be muted during the Chinese New Year period. However, we expect sales to climb back gradually over the next few months as prices stabilise and sales activities pick up after the Chinese New Year festivities. 

HDB Rental 

According to the HDB public housing data for Q4 2022, the approved applications to rent out HDB flats rebounded after three-quarters of drop, rising by 3.5 per cent from 8,192 units in Q3 2022 to 8,476 units in Q4 2022. On a year-on-year basis, volume declined by 19.7 per cent from 10,551 units in Q4 2021. 

For the whole of 2022, 36,166 units were leased, 15.1 per cent lower than the 42,623 units in 2021. It is also below the 38,798 units leased in 2020.

Rental demand has been contracting as rents have escalated, and the available rental stock has been diminishing. Tenants are signing longer leases which will progressively lead to fewer homes available for rent. 

Leasing transactions have also dipped during the year-end. There had been fewer house viewings as potential tenants and landlords were on holiday. Demand may start to pick up after the year-end holiday season.

Looking ahead, there will be fewer flats reaching MOP this year which will translate to fewer units put up for lease. The decreasing supply, coupled with a declining housing stock, may push rents higher.

However, a worsening economic outlook and inflation may mitigate steep rental hikes. Therefore, the net effect may see rents rising at a slower pace of between 15 and 18 per cent this year.


As prices have already hit a record in many areas, there will be some price resistance. Some buyers may also hesitate to pay too high prices for a flat when mortgage rates continue to climb. 

We expect price growth to remain moderate this year given the economic uncertainties, cooling measures and rising interest rates. More BTO flats will also be launched this year which will help to mitigate excessive price surges in the secondary market. HDB plans to offer up to 23,000 BTO flats in 2023. 

Therefore, prices of HDB resale flats are expected to grow at a slower pace of 5 to 8 per cent this year. The slower pace of price growth may result in more deals being sealed as volumes have already climbed back gradually over the past two months after cooling measures were implemented in September. 

We estimate that the total sales volume this year may hit around 23,000 to 26,000 units, slightly less than the 27,896 units sold in 2022, and below the 31,017 units in 2021, but possibly on par with the 23,714 units sold in 2019 and 24, 748 units in 2020.  

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