HDB resale price growth slowed further to 2.1 per cent last quarter after prices grew by a slower pace of 2.6 per cent in Q3. The second consecutive price slowdown came after new cooling measures were implemented in September.
Last quarter's price growth was the smallest quarterly increment since Q3 2020, when prices grew by 1.5 per cent. Nevertheless, prices have risen for 11 consecutive quarters and remained at a record high last quarter. For the whole of 2022, prices rose 10.3 per cent, less than the 12.7 per cent increase in 2021 but above the 5 per cent in 2020.
Price growth was modest last quarter due to the effects of September’s cooling measures and rising interest rates. Many property curbs have been implemented, impacting most flat buyers' housing affordability.
Recent interest rate hikes impacted buyers who are not eligible for an HDB loan. The fixed home loan rates offered by many banks are around 4 per cent, while some floating loan rates have already exceeded 3.5 per cent.
The price drop may be attributed to fewer large flats sold last quarter, which typically fetch higher prices. The proportion of 5-room flats, executive flats and multi-generation units dipped from 33 per cent (2,392 units) in Q3 2022 to 30.1 per cent (1,876 units) in Q4 2022.
The proportion of flats in the mature estate, which tend to fetch higher prices than those in non-mature estates, also dipped from 41.7 per cent in Q3 2022 (3,024 units) to 39.8 per cent in Q4 2022 (2,479 units).
Fewer million-dollar flats were transacted. 91 flats were sold for million dollars last quarter, down from 111 units in Q3. The monthly sales of million-dollar flats have normalised to 26 units each in November and December, down from a high of 45 units in September 2022 after the cooling measures.
More time may be needed for prices to reflect the full impact of the cooling measures.
Housing supply is expected to remain tight over the next fewer years. Flats obtaining their five-year Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) are slated to drop significantly from 31,325 units in 2022 to 15,748 units in 2023, dipping further to 13,093 units in 2024 and 8,234 units in 2025.
Although supply will fall this year, prices are not expected to rise extensively, given the cooling measures. Some buyers may also hesitate to pay too much for a flat when mortgage rates continue to climb. Prices of HDB resale flats are expected to grow at a slower pace of 5 to 8 per cent this year.